Does the existence of the aviary present or point to any definable problem? Here is one possibility. The history of the aviary and its ramifications points to the possibility that an entire civilization could conceivably succumb to spontaneously generated confusion.

It has been cogently argued, for instance, that the Roman Civilization succumbed to rumors about a single non-death resulting from one of its million or so crucifixions.

There is no way to be certain at this point in time that our modern scientific civilization might not succumb to rumors about the crash of a single flying saucer. Certainly a large segment of the entertainment industry is caught up in continual variations upon that theme which has had a measurable impact on the public distrust of governmental and scientific authority.

Is there anything that Rome could have done about the Jesus problem? Is there anything that Washington could do about the Roswell problem? There seem to be only two possible solutions. There is the Coliseum solution and the Constantine solution. In the case of Roswell, it would appear that both of these solutions are being pursued, perhaps unwittingly, and perhaps not completely so.

In the larger sweep of history the actual source for any global shift in consensus reality is only of academic interest. Once the reality wrench has been thrown, there is no way to turn back the clock and wonder what might have been. The actual wrench has by that time already been encrusted with too much cognitive dissonance to ever be more than a source of perpetual PhD theses and diatribe.

By definition, reality wrenches always come from out of the blue. Whatever might be a given reality, there will always be a reality wrench and there is no conceivable defense mechanism. There may be stratagems of delay, but these are just as likely to be counterproductive, since they will themselves be based on some questionable assumptions about reality.

Once the wrench has been thrown there can only be the Coliseums and the Constantines -- only the Philistines and the Essenes. There can only be winners and losers in the larger sweep of history.

There is one possible loophole. Remote view the winning side and get on the band wagon, but not too soon. This would appear to be the Beltway Insiders solution. This is also the aquarium solution, with a slight twist. The twist is to reinvent the wrench. Find the empty tomb/nest. Find Raven. Steal the ma/jic: Manhattan engineering -- joint chiefs integrated command or something.

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rev. 7/9/97